Sports Betting Handicap for UFC 200: TUF 23 Finale: Jedrzejczyk vs Gadelha Picks

Updated again at 6:22 PM EST 7/8

Full Fight Card:

Women’s Strawweight -130 Joanna Jędrzejczyk (c) vs +110 Cláudia Gadelha [a]
Light Heavyweight -140 Andrew Sanchez vs +120 Khalil Rountree [b]
Women’s Strawweight +290 Amanda Cooper vs -341 Tatiana Suarez [c]
Lightweight +300 Ross Pearson vs. -360 Will Brooks
Featherweight -235 Doo Ho Choi vs. +195 Thiago Tavares
Lightweight -130 Joaquim Silva vs. +110 Andrew Holbrook
Featherweight -165 Gray Maynard vs. +145 Fernando Bruno
Flyweight -170 John Moraga vs. +150 Matheus Nicolau
Middleweight +125 Cezar Ferreira vs. -145 Anthony Smith
Lightweight -135 Jake Matthews vs. +115 Kevin Lee
Welterweight -330 Li Jingliang vs. +270 Anton Zafir

Value Picks:

+195 Claudia Gadelha – She was a great value pick against Joanna, but has recently swung all the way to +110.

+215 Under 4.5 rounds Joanna vs. Claudia – The first time these two fought it was an extremely close split decision. A finish within 5 rounds is certainly within the realm of possibility, and a good value pick without a doubt.

+300 Ross Pearson – Despite Will Brooks’ 17-1 record, he has yet to fight any UFC talent. While his TKO of current Bellator Champ, Michael Chandler, is impressive,  Chandler also had not fought outside of Bellator previously. Ross Pearson is a seasoned UFC veteran and has fought the best men in his division since 2009. Don’t count Pearson out of this one. And at +300? I’ll take that every day!

+195 Thiago Tavares – Doo Ho Choi, only 25 years old, started his UFC career off with a bang by KOing his opponents in the first round in his first 2 fights. Quite impressive, but he looks to prove himself against UFC veteran, Thiago Tavares. Thiago has fought top level competition since 2009. Despite having no extremely impressive wins, Tavares has a tendency to finish his fights in the 1st round. This should be a great fight, and a true test for Doo Ho Choi. The over under is 1.5 rds for this fight, with over carrying odds of +110. I think the over is a good pick as well. For such a competitive fight, +195 is a great value for Tavares.

+290 Amanda Cooper – While Suarez is a decorated wrestler who will likely win, Cooper still carries the size advantage and could win on striking. At that, neither girl has UFC experience. Anything could happen.

Locks:

-135 Jake Matthews – Jake Matthews, only 21, and Kevin Lee, only 23, are some young guns. Matthews has looked stellar in the UFC so far. All 5 of his fights have been finishes, only losing to rising prospect James Vick. Kevin Lee is a comparable 5-2 in the UFC, with a mix of finishes and decisions. From what I’ve seen from these two, Kevin Lee will be overwhelmed by Jake’s power and volume. I also see value in the under (2.5 rounds) at +150.

-100 Over 1.5 rounds Smith vs. Ferreira – Smith has only had 1 fight in the UFC, which went to a decision. Mutante has a habit of being KO’d in the 1st round. I have a feeling Mutante will slow things down and survive at least 1.5 rounds, ultimately losing a decision to Smith.

-140 Andrew Sanchez – Sanchez was a beast this season of TUF. Both men have KO power, but Sanchez also brings more speed, technique and wrestling to the table.

Straight Picks:

-130 Joaquim Silva

My Parlays:

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