Sports Betting Handicap for UFC 200: Cormier vs Silva Picks

Full Fight Card:

Women’s Bantamweight -240 Miesha Tate (c) vs. +220 Amanda Nunes [a]
Heavyweight +145 Brock Lesnar vs. -155 Mark Hunt
Light Heavyweight -450 Daniel Cormier (c) vs. +400 Anderson Silva [b]
Featherweight +105 José Aldo vs. -125 Frankie Edgar [c]
Heavyweight -280 Cain Velasquez vs. +240 Travis Browne
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Women’s Bantamweight -155 Cat Zingano vs. +135 Julianna Peña
Catchweight (171.25 lbs) -105 Johny Hendricks vs. -115 Kelvin Gastelum
Bantamweight -380 T.J. Dillashaw vs. +315 Raphael Assunção
Lightweight -325 Sage Northcutt vs. +295 Enrique Marín
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight -115 Diego Sanchez vs. -105 Joe Lauzon
Middleweight -260 Gegard Mousasi vs. +240 Thiago Santos
Lightweight -275 Jim Miller vs. +235 Takanori Gomi

UFC 200 is here, the day has finally arrived! Yesterday my picks went 3-5, and the day before, 4-1. Overall, TopMMAOdds picks have been 7-6.

Value Picks:

+220 Amanda Nunes – Nunes has the striking and power advantage in this fight. Miesha Tate is tough, and durable. Many believe Miesha will weather the early storm, look like she came out of a strawberry patch feast, and then pull off a late win or decision win. History has shown that fighters with the strategy of “eating punches” don’t last long. The chin will give. The body will wear over time. I think the combination of Tate accumulating damage through her career and her fighting the hardest hitting striker yet will lead to a 1st round TKO by Amanda. I’d consider this a value lock even.

+243 Travis Browne – Browne is one of the most athletic heavyweights in the UFC. Despite his inability to take punches, he is able to dish them out. He has a good chance of dropping Cain Velasquez. Cain has fought only once since 2013, getting mauled by Werdum. There are plenty of questions to be answered by Cain. Given these factors, +243 is a beautiful value.

+210 Under 2.5 rounds Diego vs Joe – Sanchez is a decision war machine., but Lauzon has only went the distance 5 times in 36 professional MMA fights. When you consider the dangerous fighting style Sanchez takes into the ring, he could very well get KO’d or submitted by Joe.

+210 Thiago Santos – I feel this should be closer to a +150. Mousasi is a beast competitor, don’t get me wrong, and will fight at a very high level. I feel this is more of a case of Thiago Santos flying under the radar. He is on a 4 fight win streak against some very good fighters: Marquardt, Theodorou and Bosse. Santos has the power, technique and potential to finish Mousasi. If he doesn’t finish Mousasi though, I think Mousasi will take the decision.

Locks:

-184 Under 2.5 rounds Daniel vs Anderson – Silva claims to have been not training for the past 7 weeks. He was eating pizza right before weigh ins to add to his weight. He still was only able to weigh in at 199 lbs. That means he will likely face a 20-30 lbs strength disadvantage against Cormier. If Silva doesn’t KO Cormier by a lucky shot, he is most likely getting blasted to the shadow realm. I don’t envision Silva even having the cardio to go all 3 rounds.

+130 Under 2.5 rounds Cat vs Julianna – This will be a war. In Cat’s 10 professional MMA fights, only 1 has gone the distance, and that was 6 years ago. We have a similar breakdown for Pena as well. In 9 fights, only 2 have went the distance.  At +130, this is a good deal.

+125 Under 1.5 rounds Jim vs Takanori – I think Jim Miller submits Gomi in the 1st round. Gomi has looked terrible recently, and historically has had an embarrassing ground game. At the same time, his only chance of a win is to KO Miller in the 1st. Either way, someone takes it in the 1st (and I think likely it will be Miller).

Straight Picks:

+220 Under 1.5 rounds Miesha vs Amanda

-165 Mark Hunt – I almost had this as a lock, but Lesnar is looking like a freak these days. Much better than his last fight against Overeem. Lesnar is a freak of nature. If he can land a punch on Hunt before he gets hit, or land a takedown, Lesnar could win this. Most likely what happens though is Mark Hunt breaks Lesnar. Lesnar hasn’t fought in 5 years, and didn’t like being hit to begin with.

+399 Anderson Silva – It’s not even a value pick. Fair representation of the odds. But when you start to get to 185 lbs and above in the UFC, pretty much any given fighter has a legitimate punchers chance. Especially Anderson Silva.

-105 Johnny Hendricks – Should win in a snooze fest against up and coming prospect Kelvin Gastelum. I believe this will be a great test for Gastelum. At only 24 years old, this is a great way to see how good Kelvin really is. At the same time, I think this is Johnny’s last chance to show he is still the same man who beat Robbie Lawler and arguably GSP. And if he is that man, then taking him at -105 is a good deal. Crazy how the odds swung just because Johnny missed weight by a quarter pound (with cheese).

My Parlays (in order of confidence):

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