Sports Betting Handicap for UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs Lineker

UFC 200 has passed, and it was amazing! Before we get to Sioux Falls: McDonald vs Lineker, lets revisit the past week. On Saturday my picks went 4-7 (but provided a return of +0.75u profit), my picks went , on Friday my picks went 3-5, and the day before, 4-1. Overall, TopMMAOdds picks have been 11-13 and has provided a profit of +3.87u assuming 1u per bet.


Full Fight Card:

Bantamweight +150 Michael McDonald vs. -160 John Lineker
Lightweight -750 Tony Ferguson vs. +600 Landon Vannata
Middleweight +200 Tim Boetsch vs. -220 Josh Samman
Heavyweight +170 Daniel Omielańczuk vs. -185 Oleksiy Oliynyk
Welterweight -155 Kyle Noke vs. +145 Keita Nakamura
Flyweight +115 Louis Smolka vs. -125 Ben Nguyen
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Women’s Bantamweight -185 Lauren Murphy vs. +170 Katlyn Chookagian
Middleweight +245 Eric Spicely vs. -265 Sam Alvey
Women’s Strawweight +140 Cortney Casey vs. -150 Cristina Stanciu
Lightweight -250 Scott Holtzman vs. +230 Cody Pfister
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Bantamweight +155 Rani Yahya vs. -170 Matthew Lopez
Middleweight -210 Devin Clark vs. +190 Alex Nicholson

Value Picks:

+150 Michael McDonald – You would think he would be the favorite in this position. He has the size and height advantage to Lineker.

+230 Cody Pfister – Cody has great wrestling and may be able to take a decision. Scott hasn’t fought top competition yet, and still has a big question mark on him. I’m not uber confident here, but I see value.


+155 Rani Yahya – This is also a great value. Matthew Lopez has never fought in the UFC, and has a padded record.

-178 Over 1.5 rds John vs Michael – This bantamweight competition will almost certainly go past 1.5 rds.

-140 Under 1.5 rds Tony vs Landon – Landon is a complete tomato can. Padded record, no UFC fights, size disadvantage. Ferguson is going to sweep the floor with Landon.

-125 Ben Nguyen – Ben “10” has looked phenomenal in the UFC so far. Good chance he finishes Smolka. Ben 10 is an up and coming prospect somehow being swept under the rug!

-147 Under 2.5 rds Sam vs Eric – Smilin Sam Alvey is going to KO Eric Spicely. If not, Spicely will KO Alvey. I can’t see this going the distance.


Straight Picks:

-178 Over 1.5 rds Devin vs Alex – Devin has one past 1.5 rounds in his past 3 fights against non-UFC fighters. Alex has only had one fight, and lost it, in the UFC.

+150 Under 1.5 rds Josh vs Tim – Boetsch is either KO’ing Josh Samman, or getting KO’d by Samman. The latter being much more likely. Tim has went to decision in only 35% of his fights, and was KO’d early in his past 3 fights.


My Parlays (in order of confidence):

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